Tag: USA

  • From Globalist Delusions to National Vitality, reflection on Feb 24th. 2026

    Today Estonia celebrates its Independence Day. It is a day that serves as a potent reminder of the sovereign nation-state as the only true guarantor of liberty. As it happens, in the evening we will hear President Trump’s State of the Union Address. The global order has changed a lot during his first year as the 47th president of the USA. Simultaneously, today marks four years since Russia’s brutal, full-scale invasion of Ukraine. An event that, for many in the West, acted as the final wake-up call from the “globalist dream.”

    In the latest issue of Foreign Affairs, Nadia Schadlow, (who served as U.S. Deputy National Security Adviser for Strategy in the first Trump administration) dissects this phenomenon in her article “The Globalist Delusion.” Her thesis is as lucid as it is necessary for a European audience: we are witnessing a clash between two operating systems. On one side, a “global-first” approach, where processes, supranational institutions, and multilateral rules are believed to be the panacea for all ills. On the other, the realization that the nation-state remains the bedrock of legitimate authority and effective action.

    Europe Values Process Over Outcomes
    Schadlow highlights how a devotion to global processes has, for decades, replaced a focus on actual results. We see this vividly within the European Union. The Commission in Brussels often operates as if universal regulations and bureaucratic meddling were a substitute for strategic capability. While the EU elite has been preoccupied with identity politics and over-regulation that stifles innovation, actors like China and Russia have exploited the inherent inertia of the system.

    Looking at this from the viewpoint of one of my favorite sayings, “If you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it.” It seems Europe is still today often measuring the wrong data. We measure compliance with bureaucratic directives instead of geopolitical strength or economic dynamism.

    Schadlow’s analysis resonates with a healthy, “Thatcherite” brand of Euroskepticism. We need a strong Europe, anchored in its roots and a genuine common defense against foes from abroad. A good example is that Russia’s actions over the past four years have proven that a “lofty bureaucratic architecture” cannot end a war. What is required is national capacity, political will, and concrete coalitions of the willing.

    For us in the Nordics and Baltics, sovereignty is not an abstract concept. It is the difference between freedom and oppression. Schadlow argues that democratic states must stop delegating their destiny to a bureaucratic global order. I agree. We need a “subsidiarity with teeth,” where decisions are made close to the citizens and where member states reclaim responsibility for their own security and future.

    As we honor Estonia’s independence today and remember the sacrifices of Ukraine, we should also bury the globalist delusion once and for all. The future does not belong to the faceless institutions, but to the nations that dare to be strategic, that uphold individual responsibility, and that understand that liberty requires more than signatures on international treaties. It requires a new operating system built on reality, not wishful thinking.

  • Understanding Trump’s new surcharge and its historical roots

    On February 20, 2026, President Trump issued a series of executive orders for a surcharge, effective this coming Tuesday, February 24. As all know this was a response to the decision of the Supreme Court. The politics of Trump and the decision of the Supreme Court are not only current affairs but need to be seen in their historical context. As the United States marks its 250th anniversary, it is proper to look beyond the headlines to the historical DNA of the Republic to understand why Europe’s current trajectory is so profoundly out of sync with its greatest ally.


    The War of the Surcharge: A 250-Year Tradition

    The American Revolution was sparked by the rejection of arbitrary economic control. During the lead-up to the American Revolution in the 1760s and 1770s, tariffs, referred to then as import duties or taxes on goods, played a central role in escalating tensions between the American colonies and Great Britain. The British Parliament imposed a series of tariffs on the colonies to raise revenue, primarily to cover debts from the French and Indian War and to fund British troops stationed in North America. Key examples included the Sugar Act of 1764, which taxed sugar, molasses, and other goods; the Stamp Act of 1765, which required stamps on legal documents and printed materials; and the Townshend Acts of 1767, which levied duties on imports like glass, lead, paint, paper, and tea. These measures were enacted without colonial representation in Parliament, fueling the rallying cry of “no taxation without representation.”

    Colonists viewed these tariffs not just as financial burdens but as assertions of British control over colonial affairs. Resistance grew through boycotts, protests, and smuggling. The Townshend Acts, for instance, led to widespread non-importation agreements among merchants. The Tea Act of 1773, which effectively gave the British East India Company a monopoly on tea sales while maintaining a duty on it, culminated in the Boston Tea Party, where colonists dumped tea into Boston Harbor in protest. Britain’s punitive response, including the Coercive Acts (known as the Intolerable Acts in the colonies), further united the colonies and pushed them toward independence. The Declaration of Independence itself accused King George III of “cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world” and imposing taxes without consent. Thus, tariffs were a key catalyst in the revolutionary movement, symbolizing broader issues of autonomy and rights.

    Reflection in the US Constitution

    The experiences with British tariffs heavily influenced the framing of the US Constitution in 1787. To prevent the abuses of unchecked taxation and to centralize economic authority, the Constitution grants Congress exclusive power over tariffs and trade. Specifically, Article I, Section 8 empowers Congress “To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defence and general Welfare of the United States; but all Duties, Imposts and Excises shall be uniform throughout the United States.” This clause ensures that tariffs (duties and imposts) are a federal prerogative, used for revenue and regulation of commerce, while requiring uniformity to avoid favoritism among states.

    Additionally, to address fears of export taxes that could harm agrarian Southern states, Article I, Section 9 prohibits Congress from taxing exports: “No Tax or Duty shall be laid on Articles exported from any State.” Article I, Section 10 further restricts states from imposing their own duties on imports or exports without congressional consent, except for necessary inspection fees, and requires any net proceeds from such duties to go to the US Treasury. These provisions reflect the Founders’ intent to unify trade policy, prevent interstate economic conflicts, and limit executive overreach in taxation—lessons drawn directly from colonial grievances.

    Post-ratification, the Tariff Act of 1789 became one of the first laws passed by Congress, establishing tariffs as a primary revenue source for the new government while protecting nascent industries.

    As we can see the British Parliament’s imposition of duties without colonial consent was the primary catalyst for independence. However, the Founding Fathers were not “free traders” in the modern, borderless sense. They understood that a nation without the power to control its borders and its commerce is not a nation at all. The U.S. Constitution was thus designed specifically to fix the weaknesses of the Articles of Confederation, which allowed states to impose their own conflicting tariffs.


    Europe’s Failed Response: Bureaucracy vs. Market Reality

    While the U.S. leans into its constitutional roots of small government and national sovereignty, the European Union has drifted toward a bureaucratic elitism that prioritizes political and social engineering over economic vitality. This can be seen in three very clear ways.

    1. The Manufacturing Crisis
      The 15% surcharge will hit European exports—particularly German automobiles—at a time when the EU is already hamstrung by its own “Green Deal” regulations. Instead of deregulating to compete, Brussels’ reflex is more along the lines of a trade war, further isolating European consumers.
    2. The Digital Divide
      Look at the presence of Microsoft, Google, and Meta in Ireland. They are there because of tax competition and a relative distance from the heavy-handed bureaucracy of the Commission. Yet, the EU continues to target these American innovators with “digital service taxes” and restrictive AI regulations (the AI Act). Europe seems to be regulating itself into irrelevance while the U.S. builds the future in AI in a strong competition with China.
    3. The Myth of the “Regulator”
      The EU system allows for the Commission to act as a government without the accountability of an electorate. Unlike the U.S. system, where the President is directly answerable for the economic state of the union, the Brussels bureaucracy is insulated. Speaking of the state of the union, we can look forward to the address on Tuesday February 24th.This construction of the EU has allowed for a focus on “what-not-rights” signaling and politics while the demographic and economic base erodes.


    A Thatcherite realignment as path forward

    As we face a 15% tariff wall on Tuesday, Europe must decide: How will it move forward, double down on the failed policies of the past, or to return to the European roots of liberty and subsidiarity?
    A “Thatcherite” Europe would recognize that the U.S. is not our enemy, but our mirror. Europe needs to dismantle the bureaucratic silos that stifle innovation. It needs to stop regulating away problems like unemployment and instead change the incentives. If Europe wants American companies to stay and invest in Europe, it must offer them a market that values freedom as much as the U.S. Constitution does.
    Everybody knows that the era of European “freeloading” on American security and trade openness is over. Europe must now adapt or be left behind in the history books.

  • DeepSeek – what’s next?

    What is the commotion about in a nutshell?

    Basically there are two things going on at the moment. One is the discussion on the Technological innovations of DeepSeek. The other discussion is on how the stock market has reacted to the news.

    Main Technological Innovation of DeepSeek

    1. Open-Source AI Models: DeepSeek has developed open-source AI models that offer comparable performance to top chatbots like OpenAI’s ChatGPT at a fraction of the cost.
    2. Efficiency and Cost-Effectiveness: The company’s AI model, R1, is highly efficient and cost-effective, challenging the belief that AI development requires vast amounts of power and resources.
    3. Advanced Reasoning Skills: DeepSeek’s models, particularly R1, demonstrate advanced reasoning skills, such as the ability to rethink approaches to problems, making them stand out in benchmarks like AIME 2024 and AlpacaEval 2.0.

    Market Reaction

    1. Market Turmoil: The release of DeepSeek’s AI models caused significant turmoil in the tech market, with major companies like Nvidia experiencing a massive drop in market value.
    2. Investor Concerns: Investors are concerned about the potential impact of DeepSeek’s technology on the future of AI and computing, leading to dramatic market fluctuations.
    3. Long-Term Implications: Analysts believe that DeepSeek’s advancements could lead to a reevaluation of costs, strategies, and research approaches by major tech companies, potentially altering the competitive landscape.

    DeepSeek AI Models Overview

    DeepSeek AI, a Chinese startup, has recently launched its groundbreaking AI models, DeepSeek R1 and DeepSeek R1 Zero. These models have quickly gained attention for their exceptional performance in various tasks such as coding, mathematics, multilingual processing, and reasoning. What sets DeepSeek R1 apart is its open-source nature and affordability, making it accessible to a wider audience. The model operates under the MIT license, making it significantly cheaper than proprietary models like OpenAI’s ChatGPT.

    Market Reaction

    The introduction of DeepSeek AI models has caused a significant stir in the tech industry. The stock prices of major tech companies, including Nvidia and other AI hardware manufacturers, have taken a hit due to the cost-effective nature of DeepSeek’s models. Nvidia’s stock, in particular, saw a dramatic decline, losing nearly $600 billion in market value in a single day. This reaction highlights the disruptive potential of DeepSeek’s models, which offer comparable performance at a fraction of the cost.

    Future Expectations on AI

    Looking ahead, DeepSeek AI models are expected to continue challenging the dominance of established players in the AI industry. Their affordability and open-source nature could democratize access to advanced AI technologies, enabling more developers and organizations to leverage these tools for various applications. Additionally, the ongoing advancements in AI and the increasing demand for efficient and cost-effective solutions suggest that DeepSeek’s models will play a significant role in shaping the future of AI development.

    So what can we expect from President Trump?

    DeepSeek is highlighting the competition on AI between USA and China.  Based on recent statements and actions, we can make an “educated guess” (if that expression is allowed) about how President Trump might react to the news about DeepSeek.

    Immediate Reaction

    President Trump has already commented on DeepSeek’s breakthrough, calling it a “wake-up call” for American industries. He acknowledged that DeepSeek’s AI model is not only faster but also much cheaper than its US counterparts, which he believes could be a positive development for America. This suggests that while he recognizes the competitive threat posed by DeepSeek, he also sees an opportunity for US companies to innovate and reduce costs.

    Long-Term Strategy

    Trump’s administration has announced a massive $500 billion initiative to boost the United States’ AI infrastructure, known as the “Stargate” project. This project aims to build advanced data centers and infrastructure in Texas, with key partnerships including OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank. Trump’s focus on increasing US competitiveness in AI and tech was a central theme of his speech, where he reassured American companies that the administration would push to reduce costs while still achieving high-quality results.

    Geopolitical Implications

    Trump’s stance on China has been complex and often fluctuates between aggressive and conciliatory. While he has previously taken a hard line on China, including imposing tariffs and criticizing Chinese tech advancements, his recent comments on DeepSeek suggest a more nuanced approach. He views DeepSeek’s cost-effective innovation as a potential asset for the US, indicating a willingness to learn from and compete with Chinese advancements. This could mean that while he continues to see China as a main opponent, he might also use this competition to drive further innovation and efficiency within the US tech sector.

    In summary, Trump’s reaction to DeepSeek is likely to be a mix of recognizing the competitive threat, using it as a catalyst for further investment in US AI infrastructure, and maintaining a strategic stance on China. This approach aligns with his broader goals of ensuring US technological dominance and economic efficiency.